Nigel Farage is headed for a landslide victory in the European Parliament elections, and Boris Johnson has taken a huge early lead in the battle to succeed Theresa May as prime minister.
They are the main findings of an opinion poll that concluded at midnight on Wednesday after it became clear that May was about to resign.
Survation’s poll for the Daily Mail shows Farage’s Brexit Party far ahead in the European elections on 31 percent, followed by Labor on 23, the Conservatives on 14 and the Liberal Democrats on 12.
Nearly seven in ten Conservative voters said the reason they did not intend to vote for Mrs May yesterday was because she was unable to deliver on Brexit. Calls for her to resign were backed by 57 per cent of Conservatives with 25 per cent opposed.
A jubilant Nigel Farage outside a polling station in Kent today with his Brexit Party apparently racing to victory
With the Tory leadership contest about to begin, most of the party’s supporters seem to have decided that former Foreign Secretary Johnson is the best person to revive their dismal ratings and fix the Brexit chaos.
A full 36 per cent of Conservatives said he should be the next leader, with Home Secretary Sajid Javid a distant second on nine per cent, followed by Environment Secretary Michael Gove on seven. and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt with five.
The top-ranked candidates are Andrea Leadsom, who resigned from the Cabinet on Wednesday, and her fellow Brexiteer, former TV presenter Esther McVey.
Both are in the three percent. Johnson has almost the same advantage over his conservative rivals among voters in general. With the Tories expected to elect a new leader at the end of July, their fellow leadership contenders will have to work hard to close the gap.
If he replaces May, Johnson’s campaign skills could be tested very quickly. Despite Farage’s success in the European elections, a full 43 per cent say a general election will be needed to resolve the Brexit mess, with 29 per cent disagreeing.
The good news for the Tories is that the poll suggests their popularity will rise now that Mrs May has resigned. A full 42 per cent of Conservatives say their departure would make them more likely to vote for the party.
Furthermore, 43 per cent of Tories say they are more likely to vote for the Party with Johnson in the lead; 24 percent are less likely to do so.
The bad news for the Conservatives is that 48 percent of voters believe a new general election would produce another divided Parliament. One in five say Labor would win and just 12 per cent say the Conservatives would win.
Farage yesterday threatened to follow up his anticipated European election success in the next general election, warning MPs from the three main parties that they would “all be unemployed” if the Brexit Party challenged them.
But the Survation poll suggests it may fall short of that goal. In a General Election, the Brexit Party’s support of 31 in the European elections would be reduced to 12, which is not enough to guarantee that a single MP wins.
A full 46 percent of Conservatives back calls to neutralize the Party’s Brexit threat by forming a pact with it; 31 percent are against such a measure.
The poll shows there is little enthusiasm for the kind of no-deal Brexit advocated by Johnson and Farage, but voters believe it is increasingly likely.
Conservative MP and leadership hopeful Boris Johnson left his London home this morning (pictured) amid government turmoil. With the Tory leadership contest about to begin, most of the party’s supporters appear to have decided that former Foreign Secretary Johnson is the best person to revive their dismal ratings and fix the Brexit chaos, according to a new report. poll.
Some 34 percent say the UK will cut ties with Brussels without a deal; 26 percent say we will stay in the EU and 20 percent say we will leave with a deal.
And there is great concern that a no-deal Brexit could split the UK. Forty percent of voters fear that this will lead to Scotland becoming independent, while 21 percent disagree. Thirty percent say it would result in Northern Ireland becoming part of a United Ireland; 17 percent disagree.
Despite Conservative support for Mrs May’s decision to go, Conservative voters do not see her as primarily responsible for her downfall. A full 54 per cent point the finger at rogue Conservative MPs; 27 percent say that she is to blame.
Voters as a whole are divided on how history will judge her. A full 45 percent say they failed their country; the same number says that his party failed him.
The poll shows that Jeremy Corbyn’s control over the Labor leadership is far from secure. A full 55 per cent of voters said he should resign and 40 per cent would be more likely to vote Labor if he were replaced.
